THE BOTH VOTES SNP ARGUMENT

This article was first published in early February. I am reposting because it outlines what happened in 2016 in every region of Scotland. It was written long before The Alba Party was created but my belief is firmly that by voting for Alba on the list will deliver the Supermajority that will greatly Drive Scotland forward to Independence.

Photo by cottonbro on Pexels.com

I am going to look at this closely based on what happened back in 2016 and what looks likely to happen in May 2021. I will look at it in each region of Scotland and express my view.

For those short of time however let me spell out what my final view is before I go into that detail. Who benefits best from that strategy? Who or what loses out?

My analysis is quite certain. The big winners if people do vote both votes SNP ARE SURPRISE, SURPRISE….THE SNP! But they are not the only winners a number of Unionist MSP’s will also be winners as well because in huge areas of Scotland, based on both past and current polling, there was never any possibility that the many hundreds of thousands of SNP list votes would ever help elect anyone OTHER than Unionist MP’s. People in these regions voting both votes SNP could take a match to the ballot paper and achieve the same effect.

Seems daft does it not, why would the SNP prefer an outcome that makes it easier for Unionists to be elected RATHER than other pro Independence MSP’s from other parties?

Well it is those words “from other pro Independence parties” that is the root of the problem. The SNP currently enjoy a virtual political monopoly on the topic of Independence. As long as that continues even when the SNP are behaving very badly and proving a huge disappointment many people are trapped into continuing to vote for them because they are reluctant to vote against Independence. At least that argument stands for the constituency first vote. I forecast it will not be anything like as effective on the list vote this time round. This is where Independence supporters will take the opportunity to express their dissatisfaction with the current New SNP and look for a new home where they can express serious disquiet about the current SNP but still vote in favour of Independence as part of that process. It also offers the happy prospect of electing more pro Indy MSP’s rather than Unionists by default.

This will be the first time this option will be available to voters. Every other previous leader of the SNP has managed their years in office without the creation of other pro Independence parties springing up all around them. More sensible members of the SNP might like to question why it has now happened under Nicola’s watch? Answers on a postcard.

Now it is not as simple as I have outlined, the mathematics are, but the alternative political choice has yet to be established. I am hopeful a clear option will emerge but as yet that is still to happen so for those hoping for a steer or a recommendation in this article I will have to disappoint. The Greens, the ISP ,AFI and Scotia Future have still to convince me that they are the best option but I will make my judgement nearer the time. I am sure I am not alone in that.

So let’s have a quick look round each region, examine what happened with both votes SNP last time and make a judgement based on the latest polling what is most likely to happen in May. Let’s start with my own region, the West of Scotland. But before that let’s look at what the National polls were saying immediately before the 2016 election and what they are saying now

Constituency Vote 2016

SNP 48%

Labour 22%

Tory 19%

Liberal 7%

Constituency Vote Now

SNP 54% +6

Tory 23% +4

Labour 16% -6

Liberal 5% -2

Regional Vote 2016

SNP 41.7%

Tory 22.9%

Labour 19.1%

Green 6.6%

Lib 5.2%

Regional Vote Latest poll

SNP 43% +1.3%

Tory 21% – 1.9%

Lab 18% -1.1%

Green 10% +3.4%

Lib 6% + 0.8%

What is clear from the above is that the level of SNP support is even higher than the last time so the SNP are likely to win more constituency seats than last time making it even LESS likely they can win many lists seats, or to be precise ANY in most regions.

WEST OF SCOTLAND

The 136,000 votes cast for the SNP on the list elected ZERO Msp’s

Just over 72,000 Labour list votes elected 3 Labour Msp’s

Just under 72000 Tory votes elected 3 Tory Msp’s

Just over 17000 Green votes elected 1 Green MSP.

The SNP RECOMMENDATION IS BOTH VOTES SNP AND LET SIX UNIONISTS BE ELECTED.

MY RECOMMENDATION IS DON’T BE SO STUPID.

MID SCOTLAND AND FIFE

128,000 SNP votes cast on the list elected ZERO SNP Msp’s

Just over 73,000 Tory votes elected 4 Tory MSP’s

Just over 51,000 Labour votes elected 2 Labour Msp’s

Just under 18000 Green votes elected 1 Green MSP.

SNP RECOMMENDATION BOTH VOTES SNP

MY RECOMMENDATION ARE YOU COMPLETELY MAD?

LOTHIANS

Just over 118,000 SNP VOTES elected ZERO SNP MSP’s.

Almost 75,000 Tory votes elected 3 Tory Msp’s

Almost 68,000 Labour votes elected 2 Labour Msp’s

Just over 34,000 Green votes elected 2 Green MSP’s

SNP RECOMMENDATION BOTH VOTES SNP

MY RECOMMENDATION ONLY IF YOU LIKE ELECTING UNIONISTS.

GLASGOW

110,000 SNP list votes elected ZERO MSP’s.

Just over 59000 Labour votes elected 4 Labour MSP’s

Just under 30,000 Tory votes elected 2 Tory Msp’s

Just over 23,000 Green votes elected 1 Green MSP.

SNP RECOMMENDATION BOTH VOTES SNP

MY RECOMMENDATION DON’T BELIEVE A WORD OF IT!

CENTRAL SCOTLAND

Over 129,000 SNP list votes elected ZERO SNP Msp’s

Just over 67,000 Labour list votes elected 4 Labour Msp’s

Just over 43,000 Tory list votes elected 3 Tory MSP’s.

SNP RECOMMENDATION BOTH VOTES SNP

MY RECOMMENDATION YOU CAN’T BE SERIOUS!

NORTH EAST

137,000 SNP list votes elected ZERO SNP MSP’s.

Just under 86,000 Tory list votes elected 4 Tory Msp’s

Just under 39,000 Labour list votes elected 2 Labour Msp’s

Just over 18,000 Lib Dem list votes elected 1 Lib Dem MSP.

SNP RECOMMENDATION BOTH VOTES SNP

MY RECOMMENDATION YOU COULD BURN THEM. IT WOULD HAVE THE SAME IMPACT.

SOUTH SCOTLAND

Just over 120,000 SNP LIST VOTES ELECTED 3 SNP MSP’s

Just under 101,000 Tory list votes elected 2 Tory Msp’s

Just over 56,000 Labour list votes elected 2 Labour Msp’s

SNP RECOMMENDATION BOTH VOTES SNP

MY RECOMMENDATION MAKES SENSE TO ME!

HIGHLAND AND ISLANDS

Just over 81,000 SNP list votes elected 1 SNP MSP’s

Just over 44,000 Tory list votes elected 3 Tory MSP’s.

Just under 23,000 Labour list votes elected 2 Labour MSP’s.

Just over 14,000 Green votes elected one Green MSP.

SNP RECOMMENDATION BOTH VOTES SNP

MY RECOMMENDATION TRICKY, ON CURRENT CONSTITUENCY POLLING NO!

So, as you can see above it is absolutely pointless using your list vote for the SNP in six out of the eight regions of Scotland. Those votes have no prospect of electing anyone from the SNP but they will make it easier for Tories or Labour MSP’s to be elected than if you used those votes for other pro Indy candidates.

In South Scotland it does make sense to use both votes SNP even though in current polling it looks as if only one SNP list MSP would be elected rather than the three that were in 2016.

Highland is the most difficult to judge. It is marginal. Current polling suggests that the SNP will win so many constituency seats in the region it makes it unlikely any list seat would be won , however the polls could change, so I would suggest leaving any decision to the last minute.

FLY IN THE OINTMENT TIME

Just advance notice that I have a story coming that I feel will discourage a lot of people from voting for any SNP candidate on the list. This is not just because the SNP NEC have fixed the selection lists to exclude more than 75% of Scots having any opportunity to win the first spot in every region, reserving the places for minorities. It will be coming along tomorrow.

The SNP are being very selfish with their both votes SNP strategy. They know that they are encouraging huge numbers of Scots to effectively burn their vote rather than encourage them to vote for other pro Indy candidates and help create a super pro Indy majority in the Parliament. In the past the strategy worked because people trusted the SNP leadership and message. Today, not so much.

Now everything I have wrote here is based on the current political position. That can change, however for it to change sufficiently in the six regions outlined above it would have to be a massive one, nevertheless I will update this article during the actual election campaign to replicate the actual political situation at that time.

I think this debate will develop between now and May and would forecast that if a front runner alternative emerges they could be pushing an open door. Opened by a SNP leadership that have lost their way and are on completely the wrong and most divisive agenda.

I am, as always

Yours for Scotland

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Please share and tweet this article. People need to understand what happens with their list vote. I have tried to explain in slighter brighter form than a academic explanation hoping people read it and understand what happened last time in 2016 in their region.

i

17 thoughts on “THE BOTH VOTES SNP ARGUMENT

  1. Running the same “model” for all regional lists as the one which showed a net gain of 1 indy-supporting seat in South Scotland, with a very modest share of the list vote, showed that the SNP would lose all 4 list seats, but that the indy-supporting list seats would show a net gain of 14 seats – based on 2016 numbers and assuming that ALBA won vote share only from the SNP. It is likely that ALBA will win list vote share from Greens also, but if we regard Greens as indy-supporting then any “wins” for ALBA from Greens would have no net effect on total indy-supporting MSPs.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Minus 4 SNP, minus 6 Greens ( top list SNP candidates all Woke)
      Plus 14 ALBA gain

      No net gain? really!

      10 less Wokes, 4 additional Indy supporting MSPs 14 total.

      Looks like a significant net effect to me. Vote Indy/Vote Women’s Rights

      Liked by 3 people

  2. There was a time it made sense. When they required a fall back plan/ safety net, whatever you want to call it.

    However it is now simply a device to block competition. To stop any new party gaining traction. It is a negative policy promoted purely to retain dominance and control.

    Liked by 4 people

    1. Its also there to give Sturgeon, Swinney, and a few others 2 bites at the cherry, a safety net if they get booted out on the Constitution vote if you like. Of course Labour and the Conservatives also do it, so its fine… not ‘gaming they system’ in any way.

      Liked by 4 people

  3. Fantastic, thanks for posting this again Iain. I have been posting this since you first posted it every time I see “Vote SNP 1 and 2” on Twitter or wherever. Wings made the list argument clear years ago, followed by you & BB. Keep up the excellent work!!

    Liked by 1 person

  4. I averaged out those numbers across the 8 areas. The SNP took on average 120,000, next closest was 72,000, next again was 48,000.

    That is such a clear intention of preference by the voters, in all regions, for an almost zero reward. Shocking waste if you think about it.

    If, as Nicla has said, Alex is trying to get Indy in through the back door, good I say.

    I want indy through the front door, the back, in the cellar, through the loft and coming in through every window, nook and cranny. It can even come down the chimney and call itself Christmas.

    Nicla wants to ‘play fair’ with a Britnat establishment that introduced the 40% rule in 1979, that brought in GERs to disinform us of our true wealth, that forced Thatcher on us against our votes and decimated our industrial base, that hid the McCrone Report so they could rob us, and time and time again has used our soldiers as the cannon fodder for their shitty wars.

    Fair is for another time and another deal. Right just now we need tough, streetwise, ruthless, detemined and very, very smart. Thank goodness for Alex.

    Liked by 6 people

  5. Well said Iain, these facts really do have to get out to the independence seeking voting public. No one it seems has a clue how D’Hondt works, which until now didn’t make much of a difference, due to there only being one independence party. These numbers you have stated are irrefutable, but unfortunately something that the normal punter is not going to be able to see. I know it would be difficult, financially and with so little time, but I still think sending something like this out to every house hold in Scotland would prove worthwhile.
    I really liked your post Daisy, and your response to Sturgeon going on about getting indy through the back door. My front door is also open to Indy, and my chimney too.

    Liked by 3 people

  6. Yesterday Nicola Sturgeon said on the BBC that she did not want a supermajority, only a simple majority.

    Yes, you heard that right. Sturgeon Doesn’t want a super majority and would rather have Conservative and Labour, MSPs. Incredible isn’t it. An SNP arguing to maintain and maximise unionist seats. But she’s not the only loon ball supporting the unionists.

    No wonder there are moves afoot to require her to stand aside as leader Immediately post the election. She has through her insane control freakery lost the proverbial plot. But voters have not lost the plot and will vote to maximise independence seats by voting SNP 1 and Alba 2.

    Let’s kick out as many unionists as we can.

    And Alba is the key to giving the SNP a majority. So let’s not wake up on the 8th May to find us sitting with a minority SNP all because Nicola recommended that voters could wasted a predicted million votes that would in the event secure no seats – whereas Alba could with that vote secured around 30 MSPs.

    Personal animosities cannot be allowed to stop the march of a nation.

    Liked by 6 people

  7. Cannot believe that Sturgeon said she doesn`t want a supermajority. Who in their right mind in the independence movement doesn’t want a supermajority? You can only conclude from that, that she`s not that bothered about independence. But then that has been evident from her actions (or lack thereof) for quite a while now….

    Liked by 2 people

  8. “…but my belief is firmly that by voting for Alba on the list will deliver the Supermajority that will greatly Drive Scotland forward to Independence.”

    As I write this Rod Stewart’s ‘Reason to believe’ is playing on my Spotify playlist. How appropriate. I don’t do faith. I need reasons to believe. Thus far, I’ve been given none. I have been unable to identify a single reason for imagining that Alba Party will contribute anything at all to Scotland’s cause. Nobody has been able to explain to me precisely what the party intends to do that might “Drive Scotland forward to Independence”, even supposing any of its candidates manage to get elected. Which early polls suggest isn’t going to happen.

    Turning to Alex Salmond in the hope of something more substantial than the breathless waffle I get from his supporters was edifying. Although not in the way I was hoping for. https://peterabell.scot/2021/04/02/where-is-the-spirit-2/

    Like

    1. I have been unable to find a single reason why anyone thinks that the SNP are going to contribute anything to the cause of independence. They have missed several open goals, maybe some of the best chances we have ever had. This is now one of our last chances to hasten independence. Waffle you say – seems that is all that Sturgeon is doing lately in regard to independence. Like her I also question your commitment to independence. Why so negative all the time? Salmond is a giant and has put together one excellent team. I do not doubt the commitment of any of the Alba team to the independence cause. Unlike for example, many in the SNP such as cozy slippers Pete and Angus Robertson…

      Liked by 2 people

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