This is reproduced from Robin McAlpine’s excellent site robinmcalpine.org. It deserves the widest audience to offset the ridiculous spin of the Scottish Government.
Scotland gives away its energy future
by Robin McAlpine | 17 Jan 2022
The ScotWind auction has just handed almost total control of Scotland’s energy future to overseas corporations for what looks like a pitifully small sum
The results of the auction of Scotland’s wind resources has been announced today. It was estimated that this ‘ScotWind’ auction would generate ‘up to’ £890 million by auctioning 10 GigaWatts of capacity. In the end they sold two and a half times as much (24 GigaWatts) for significantly less (£699 million).
So the first headline is that this auction delivered a price per GigaWatt of Scotland’s energy resources of almost exactly a third of the unit price they predicted.
The second headline is who won the bids. The biggest winner is BP – and Shell also features at number four in the list, so Big Oil is now a permanent resident in Scotland’s waters.
Of the rest the big winners in terms of the control of Scotland’s renewables futures are (in descending order) UK, Italian, Swedish, Belgian, Spanish, Spanish (again), UK, Canadian, Norwegian, Canadian (again) and Spanish (again). None of the successful bids went to companies registered in or owned by Scotland.
(Note that ScottishPower is owned by Iberdrola which is Spanish. SSE has a complicated structure with various subsidiaries but while it is headquartered in Perth, the largest part of its business is a subsidiary of OVO Group which is headquartered in Bristol. None of the controlling interests are Scottish – certainly not entirely so.)
Assessing the kind of value for money Scotland gets out of this is fairly straightforward. Very roughly, a GigaWattHour (i.e. the value of the electricity generated in one hour from this total capacity) is about £70,000. So for the corporations who now own (subject to a second phase of approval) this Scottish asset to recoup their total outlay is roughly two days of wind.
Of course they also need to build the infrastructure and that isn’t cheap. The average price for ten MegaWatt of offshore installed wind power is very variable depending on conditions but is in the order of about £6 million. So the total installation cost of all these developments will be in the order of about £15 billion.
.
It isn’t particularly easy to see how a nation could go about getting less value out of its natural resources.
While this may sound like a substantial investment, using the above calculations it would repay itself in as little as 900 hours of generation time. Which is to say that once this is all in place the time it will take the corporations to be in the ‘pure profit’ stage is about 40 days.
Of course wind generation isn’t constant so it won’t be 40 calendar days – but then again offshore wind is much more reliable than onshore wind. In addition there is an annual fee to be paid – but this will generate Scotland about £60 million to £90 million for Scotland.
To put that in perspective, if the entire development was carried out by a Scottish Public Energy Company and based on reported annual profits from currently installed offshore wind in Scotland the income for Scotland would instead be £5.5 billion.
So who is in charge of this process? The auction has been run by Crown Estates Scotland. This is a body which manages assets technically owned by the Monarchy but in practice it is a public corporation which answers solely to the Scottish Government, works closely with them and has their Chair and their Boardappointed directly by the Scottish Government.
This means that to all intents and purposes this is a wholly devolved function and this is the result of Scottish Government decision-making, not UK Government and not ‘The Crown’.
It is yet again worth comparing this situation with the way that Norway developed its oil and gas sector in public ownership capturing the profit for Norwegian citizens. Had the Scottish Government done the same it would have created an almost permanent income stream of over £5 billion for Scottish services – a ten per cent rise in the Scottish Government budget.
These resources are now lost to Scotland, and it remains to be seen if any manufacturing capacity is established in Scotland as a result. There are positive political noises being made about this (yet again), a PR spin which is undermined by the fact that supply chain issue were explicitly excluded from the auction tender and assessment process.
It isn’t particularly easy to see how a nation could go about getting less value out of its natural resources.
MY COMMENT
I have reproduced this article because I am disgusted at Scottish Government attempts to present this auction as some sort of success. Remember, only a few weeks ago Nicola Sturgeon announced she was abandoning plans to launch our own not for profit National Energy Company. Looking at the outcome of this auction she clearly prefers big profits for private companies, especially if they are owned and controlled outside Scotland. The SNP have lost their way and completely forgotten why they were elected. It is truly shameful.
i am, as always
Yours for Scotland
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Yet another betrayal from SNP/Scottish Government …
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Yes, Duncanio. And this is the biggest one yet.
Bigger than instigating for the 2019 general election. Bigger than the parliament dis-assembly bill. Bigger than not campaigning on I independence. Bigger than parcelling up NHS services for privatisation.
Is that really all of our wind capacity gone to BP and She’ll?
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Reblogged this on Ramblings of a now 60+ Female.
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You have to shake your head at the lack of vision in this government. Renewables, land reform, there is plenty could be done of direct benefit to the people of Scotland even with Holyrood’s current powers. But for whatever reason, not only are these opportunities not worked towards, they aren’t even discussed.
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Does anyone else think like me that this isn’t just ineptitude but something more malign?
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Yes Janice, MALIGN in all of its connotations. SNP MSPs who we elected to represent the interests of Scotland and her people are in thrall to a narcissistic First Minister who has misrepresented Scotland’s interests in favour o’ shovin’ hur ain barra since the day and hour her arse landed on Holyrood’s benches!
We can be in no doubt from the commentary regularly presented on this site that there is a wealth of knowledge and expertise within the Independence movement which is being denied traction by the sycophants of shame embedded in Sturgeons fiefdom courtesy of the SNP.
Writing to politicians within the SNP IS A LOST CAUSE we must assemble at our Parliaments gate AND DEMAND OUR COLLECTIVE VOICE BE HEARD. Scotland’s future is NOT up for auction – or is it?
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Two points – in most auctions there is a minimum reserve price – what was the reserve price in this auction, and how was it set ?
I like to read what Robin writes, please ask him to open his mailing list for notifications of new posts, I’m sure he really wants his voice to be heard !!!
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Very worrying. Obviously there aren’t many gender issues in wind energy development. How else can we explain Sturgeon’s lack of interest and lack of judgement.
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Sturgeon the grifter who just keeps on gifting. Another of Scoland’s assets gifted to outsider companys.There’s only one like her and unfortunately for Scotland we are lumbered with her. A unionist traitor.
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This is sickening. Not only have our so-called ‘government’ learnt nothing from the oil boom years, they have actually managed to gain even less for Scotland than the widely acknowledged squandering of that opportunity – amply illustrated by Norway’s staggering success through its wealth fund.
During those years, in the seventies and eighties, many Scots benefitted from the construction yards and oil rig industry, even if the wider picture of long term benefit was undermined and ignored. You would think we would learn from that and seek to harness this golden opportunity to remedy the faults and omissions of those years.
Instead we have even less employment benefits from construction, maintenance or administration of the new energy resources and networks. Hardly anything is built, owned or exploited by Scotland, as international corporate business sees a gold rush for themselves and their investors.
The SNP loves talking up the renewable energy sector, predictably as a virtue-signalling exercise, without a clue of how essential it is that every Scot has a stake in the exploitation of our own resources, or any apparent desire to make that a reality. Their feeble, buck-passing excuses, vapid speeches and hollow claims must make the offshore oligarchs laugh, as they rack up the future profits and ease with which they captured them.
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BP is an American Company now. They ceased to be “British” (whatever that meant) quite some time ago that is why they only use the designation “BP”. In reality the majorCompanies have little association with any Nation.
Yes the BP HQ is still in London but the that is just “boiler plating” for legality. They are about as British as Putin.
It is like the Shell Move of HQ to London it is meaningless.
BP like all the others are simple investment/profit driven units. The history of Oil Companies is to move into an area and suck off fast profits. A few decades ago the majors flipped their portfolios from Oil to Gas. The current policy is to raise the “Green” profit. In simple terms a “Spreadbet” to reduce Risk.
Look at the major share holders…that is where the profits from a Scottish Resource will flow, to the major share holders to boost dividend for the elite who use these managed investment funds.. (The terms Global and International gets used a lot)
Franklin Income Fund
DFA International Value Series
DFA International Core Equity Por…
Orbis SICAV – Global Balanced Fun…
Dimensional International Value E…
Vanguard Energy Fund
BlackRock Large Cap Focus Value F…
Nuveen International Growth Fund
BlackRock Global Allocation Fund
Fidelity Series Global (ex-US) In…
When you do not have a National Fund for the people of the Country from which the Resources are taken then the Profit opportunity is massive.
Money, Money, Money but not for YOU! It will not be invested for YOUR children. It will not reduce energy costs for YOUR household.
These companies have Changed little from the East India Company Model of a few hundred years ago.
Sturgeon is allowing this to happen because she is incapable of leadership.
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Our colonial wretchedness means that the so-called “Scottish Government” is also just “boiler plating”.
In a colony the institutions are primarily there to serve and protect the interests of the colonial power. Wind energy licensing is merely another illustration of longstanding external plunder and robbery of Scotland’s resources and exploitation of its people.
Its about time Scotland’s National Parties started to understand what independence really means: https://www.facebook.com/YesHaddington/videos/professor-alf-baird-speaking-at-yes-haddingtonyes-tranent-meeting-151221/1059504741259620
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Alf, to add insult to injury, look at the engineering powerhouse building our wind farms!
From Insider Magazine December 2020:
A Welsh civil engineering firm has been awarded a contract for the 13-turbine wind farm in Scotland where Amazon will buy the power generated.
Brookfield Renewable UK (BRUK) has engaged Jones Bros Civil Engineering UK to deliver Kennoxhead Phase 1, a 60 megawatt development near the village of Glespin in South Lanarkshire.
I despair
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I agree with the reply but would like to listen to the video. I,ve tried but the sound quality is poor and I have a hearing impairment. Is there a version with sub-titles?
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arayner1936
Here is a slightly longer presentation of ‘The Socio-Political Determinants of Scottish Independence’ in which the sound is mostly very good aside from a couple of brief outside takes.
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👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻
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Many thanks Iain,
I have forwarded this to Lorna Slater, Ian Blackford and my local MP
Drew Hendry for their response to their critics-not holding my breath
but you never no!
Regards,
David Cox
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Robin deserves any praise for this article.
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I’m sure Sturgeon will be well rewarded for this betrayal, of course, was on television yesterday telling us all that this is a great deal for Scotland. The Scottish people need to betold of this treaty, maybe Scottish Labour will wake up and smell the coffee.
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It’s another nail in the coffin of genuine independence. An independent Scotland under the SNP would be independent in name only, its assets held elsewhere. Where is the strategic plan for real independence which would require making sure that these assets are preserved for the future benefit of an independent Scotland? And of course for other resources, land, manufacturing, housing etc.
Of course that would require actually believing that independence is real and planning for it. There is no evidence that the SNP take that seriously, or will fight for it. Their timid passivity, perpetual sloganising and war against other independence parties or individuals is utterly demoralising. Maybe that’s the point.
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I’ve sadly come to the conclusion that the SNP are determined to destroy any chance of us becoming independent by giving away our assets. We’ll be tied up for years trying to untie the Gordian Knot of contracts such as these, “woven through” these multinationals whose fingers are in every aspect of the theft of our natural resources.
I feel a Private Fraser moment coming on..
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Another renewable energy boom will be along soon enough when we hook up turbines to the graves of the founding fathers and mothers of the SNP who must be spinning around at some rate by this time.
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Is There Anyway The People of Scotland Can Protest against This To The Scottish Parliament ?
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Never vote SNP would be a good start.
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The Scottish people have been conned by a Unionist dressed as a Nationalist. But why are all the SNP MSPs quiet?
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Aye Terry, they could get up aff thair knees fur a yoker an’ gaither at Holyroods Door but fir want o’ leadership that’s no likely tae cum aboot ony time soon! ALBA whaur are ye?
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Not for long, when the new police powers come out!
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There is something in the contemporary Brit mentality, I put Sturgeon’s ScotGov in that set, that sees nothing untoward in flogging it to all and sundry. Plainly, those of the type get off on it, the bad habit of little effort «rewarded».
Assets notwithstanding, is the now isolated and marginalized British state in a condition of managed decline?
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I am gobsmacked with this latest act of treachery from the Scottish Government. They have just opened the door wider for the Alba party. The real independence party.
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I sent the following email to the Scottish government for referral to the appropriate minister. I sent it this morning before I read this article. I can’t say I am holding my breath for a serious answer. Nicola Sturgeon and the Scottish government are worse than James Callaghan who was the one who refused to set up an Oil Fund and the following PMs who gleefully spent the money.
Dear Sir,
Regarding the sale of rights to renewable energy assets, I would be obliged if the following questions could be answered.
Why were these sites auctioned on the basis of having “…….. a combined potential generating capacity of 25GW – well above the expected auction outcome of 10GW.”? (quote from a BBC news item on 17th January 2022)
Why were the rights auctioned in their entirety?
Why did the Scottish Government not retain a portion of the rights for the Scottish people on an ongoing basis rather than accept a one-off payment with all profits going to energy companies?
Why has the Scottish government not set up a Fund into which such ongoing payments would be made, or a portion thereof?
Why is the Scottish government following the same path that saw the profits from the Oil industry diverted from Scotland, or indeed the UK, and used to fund the destruction of Scottish industry and subsequently used to benefit big business and the South East of England.
Has the Scottish government learned nothing from history and from the example of Norway?
These are not rhetorical questions. I want answers.
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Yeah sent another e-mail to my local MSP Bill Kidd outlining what a poor deal for Scotland it is, added that the SNP won’t get a vote from me or anyone in my household again. Lets see if he replies.
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I’ve also been looking for the rationale behind the decision. I was sent this that someone had posted on Facebook..
Obviously it is talking about the auction in isolation – not wrt potential benefits of a national energy company…
“Regarding the auction of licenses for offshore wind development, I agree with the many comments that this is a wasted opportunity and an effective privatisation of what should be a public sector resource. And that is where my agreement ends.
If you read the SG announcement on this then you will see that “The projects are expected to secure at least £1bn in supply chain investment for every 1GW of capacity proposed”. The statement then refers to a “current planning assumption of 10GW of offshore wind”. So that’s a total investment required of over £10 billion.
Devolution only allows the Scottish Government to borrow £500 million each year … and that is to cover investment in all projects, not just infrastructure. Under devolution it would take over 20 years to raise the finance necessary to reach our offshore wind target and bring about Net Zero through a Just Transition. We need it much, much sooner.
Westminster, however, is independent and can borrow whatever money it wants (or just print it) for any project it wishes. Do you now see the actual problem here?
I am a socialist trade unionist, and I want to see Scottish public ownership of essential infrastructure. I know that devolution cannot deliver that. We need Independence to do so, and it’s time that those carping from the fringes accepted this and focused on campaigning against the Union instead of against their colleagues in the Independence Movement.
(Update: The target was 10GW but the the auction actually approved 17 projects with a combined 25gw potential, so the time to raise the investment money would be 50 years, not 20.)”
Think we urgently need answers from Holyrood.
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Yeah read this yesterday I’m absolutely disgusted with this woeful deal that will see Scots lose out big time. We need to hit this lot where it hurts at the polls, don’t vote SNP in May’s council elections vote for the Alba party.
I sent Scottish ministers an e-mail telling them so, and you can too here. scottish.ministers@gov.scot
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The New SNP don’t just sell us down the river but on land and sea too.
Surely the current crop of comfy slippered MPs and MSPs can’t ALL think this is OK.
Why are none of them speaking out?
What are they afraid of?
If they REALLY were worth any of the votes cast for them, they would walk away.
Are they really all so brain dead or brain washed?
They don’t seem to have a set of balls between them.
Cruella de Sturgeon can’t jail all of them.
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Such outrageous plunder following on from centuries of similar colonial exploitation can only be remedied by independence and the replacement or removal of all colonial institutions from Scotland, including the UK devolved administration.
A newly independent state is not obliged to respect any economically exploitative contracts forced on the people during the period of colonialism. This is in part why the UN Decolonization Committee (C-24) regards colonialism as “a scourge” and calls for it to end – i.e. to bring to an end the exploitation and subjugation of an entire people and their nation.
Economic plunder and exploitation therefore ends upon independence when all such business arrangements would need to be properly re-assessed. This is what independence means, the ending of colonial exploitation in all its forms – economic, political, cultural, linguistic and so on – the ending of external interference in our affairs.
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Thank you for that glimmer of hope. All we need do now is to persuade the current Scottish Government to act in the interests of the people of Scotland which is what they were voted in to do. I will write to my MP (Edinburgh Central), who is reprited to be a man of influence in the SNP but do not expect any comfort.
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Thanks, Alf ,for the link to another verion of the Haddington speech. The sound quality is much better and I get most of it even without subtitles (which are available).
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Thanks for that comment, Prof Baird it provides a measure of reassurance. However, it seems to me that this issue is of such fundamental importance to the economic and social well-being of our country that it demands a detailed explanation by the First Minister in Parliament. If it’s the case that Scotland’s government is unable to to provide the capital investment or infrastructure necessary to progress this in the interests of the Scottish people, then perhaps even significant enough to call a referendum on.
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It should be profiled to make people aware of this useless squandering of our future. Unless the ALBA MPs take this up I doubt we will hear a murmur.
The cult think “wheeshtForIndy” will get them there. What a collection of arrogant fools. They probably also think “votes 1 and 2 SNP” was designed to win a majority, not a minority government propped by by Sturgeons best buds in the Greens. Clowns.
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Kenny MacAskill is already very active in getting the info about why this deal is very bad news out there. We need a big reaction among the public over this,
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Another article by Robin McAlpine, in which he concludes and I agree that Scottish businesses are being eroded away replaced by foreign companies and in the process we are losing our distinctive Scottishness, that defines our country to a point.
Again on the renewables give away McAlpine says.
“It is why selling off Scotland’s crucial assets cheap to overseas companies as happened with ScotWind yesterday is such a crisis for the country. Let me explain the consequences.”
“Right now the Scottish Greens are bizarrely crowing about ‘guaranteed supply chain jobs’, a factor explicitly ruled out of bid assessment by the tender document. But it doesn’t make all that much difference, because past failure in this area means there just aren’t many appropriate engineering and manufacturing businesses to give the contracts to.”
http://robinmcalpine.org/the-shrivelling-of-scotlands-economy-jeopardises-independence/
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Bella Caledonia have also commented on this issue and a reply from David Kelly refers to an article he wrote in the December Saor Alba magazine of the Edinburgh Yes Hub, with a link.
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The article by Robin McAlpine reminded me of the salmon farming industry in Scotland today. 192,000 tonnes of salmon were grown in Scottish marine waters last year. Incredibly 99% of that salmon production was grown by only five companies. All five companies are foreign owned. Mowi Scotland (formerly Marine Harvest) is Norwegian owned and controlled. Scottish Sea Farms is jointly owned by Leroy and Salmar of Norway. Scottish Salmon Company is owned by the Bakkafrost group from the Faeroe Islands. Cooke Aquaculture Scotland is owned by the Cooke family who are based in New Brunswick Canada and Loch Duart is owned by an American private equity fund based in Colorado. Did you ever wonder what happened to Tavish Scott of the Lib Dems? He is now the head of “Salmon Scotland” which used to be called the Scottish Salmon Producers Organisation.
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Rather than a march on Holyrood, or even Bute House, how about a series of demonstrations outside either. I suspect there would be enough of us in the Edinburgh area to do so. I’d certainly be up for it for a couple of hours on several days. Perhaps more notice would be taken of that. I know of some groups who’ve done this outside the UK Government Offices, though I doubt they take much notice.
At least at Holyrood it might shame some MSPs and make them consider what policies they are accepting.
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Yes, I think some direct action is what is needed
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On my above comment this surely must resonate with folk.
McAlpine points out that an FM who was serious about Scottish independence wouldn’t have given away that very valuable asset yesterday for a one-off pittance payment. I would have been retained grown and used to better the country for our people.
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So, question is, can a newly independent Scottish govt change the rules of the game – e.g levy a tax on these companies, or would that likely attract legal action. How can we undo this?
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An independent sovereign state can impose a tax on whatever it wants, e.g. whisky exports, aggregates exports, grouse estates, businesses/utilities owned by offshore private equity funds, oil and gas exports, renewable energy exports, etc. It can also nationalise strategic businesses/industries/utilities, or take part ownership of them. It can also subsidise and/or impose price ceilings for domestic goods and services (e.g. energy) for its own people. It can also impose a range of specific regulations (e.g. supply and capacity, pricing etc) to ensure the nation and its people does not lose out from its national resources.
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New Hinkley point C Neucear power station is 3.2GW. Construction cost £20billion.
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Thanks for the updates above ROS and RW, very interesting. I see this issue as a game-changer in terms of the independence debate and how we take this forward. Alf Baird offered a brilliant theoretical analysis of our political and social structure which helped to reveal the underlying features of the relationships underpinning our Scottish society.
The movement now needs a theoretical analysis of our political economy. i.e. a “study of the production and trade and their relationships with law, custom and government and with the distribution of national income and wealth”. Scotland has a great wealth of knowledge throughout our universities. Surely we have academics, practicing within Scotland’s universities, who are able to provide this analysis and information about our political economy and the economic relationships underpinning our society and who are able to present their knowledge and research to us to enable a further enlightenment and inform the next steps of our independence campaign.
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Thanks for the kind words. Interesting that there has only ever been the one solitary theoretical framework developed explaining Scottish independence, though perhaps we only need the one.
“The movement now needs a theoretical analysis of our political economy. i.e. a “study of the production and trade and their relationships with law, custom and government and with the distribution of national income and wealth”.
This is a very important point you make, inferring correctly that there has been very little if any detailed academic research work done on potential remedies an independent Scottish government could use to halt the blatant and widespread interception of economic rents across multiple industry sectors in Scotland by external entities.
However I would not put too much faith in current ‘Scottish’ elite universities, at which only some 1 in 10 of the academics today are Scottish, and where any ongoing ‘academic’ work and initiatives remain strongly focused on keeping Scotland doun-hauden within the union, e.g. Kezia’s ‘institute’ at Glasgow Uni, the ‘International Relations’ group at St. Andrews, etc. Institutionalised establishment bias against independence is also clearly evident here given the fact there is zero ongoing university-led and/or government funded academic research into either the need for independence or the socio-economic benefits it would bring.
This therefore sounds more like a job for Robin MacAlpine (and perhaps someone who knows a bit about Scotland’s ‘maritime business’) who seems to be getting ever closer to the nitty gritty (and cost) of colonial plunder in Scotland. Maybe some content there for a ‘wee blue book’?
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I would certainly like to know more on these topics, if you have the time Professor, my blog will be delighted to publish and promote same!
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The lack a government funded research into the economics of independence is shocking. More power to your elbow and may the wind fill your sails.
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Nicola Sturgeon’s day is done, she is burnt out, she has no interest in what is best for Scotland, only what is best for her. Implementing a Scottish National Energy Company would be hard work, so would Independence, she quite simply has lost the energy for doing anything other than feathering her own nest in these twilight years. It’s time for her to move on and in doing so allow Scotland to move on.
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“she quite simply has lost the energy for doing anything other than feathering her own nest”
You cannot lose what you never had. Frankly, I don’t think she ever had that energy or the decency in the first place. Surely this last treacherous move takes beyond any possible doubt that this woman never had the most remote intention of delivering independence and has been leading us on and using our votes for 7 effing years to sell out all what Scotland had left of value. There is not bigger betrayal to Scotland than that.
It was clear the British state was protecting her this loser along the Holyrood inquiry and beyond for a reason. As usual, the British state needed a Scot to deliver the killing blow. Neither she nor the “party” she “leads” can ever be trusted again. Actually, we should have stopped trusting that party the day Mr Salmond stood down. Pure new labour apparatchiks hiding like cowards behind a nationalist flag.
If we want independence the first thing we need to do is to eject Sturgeon and her gang of back stabbers from our seats.
Now it is becoming rather clear why this party of betrayers were distracting us with the GRA nonsense. What a disgrace. It makes you sick.
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I don’t suppose the supine ‘Scottish media’ has much to say on this fire sale?
Without some rag splurging it on the front pages I doubt that the fiasco will be known to many.
It would make you greet.
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It has amazed me how little attention the media has paid to this highly controversial topic. What is going on?
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