WHAT NEXT?

WHAT NEXT?

It is a question many are asking. The more so because some of the answers are becoming clearer by the day. A crisis is coming, correction , many more than one crisis is coming.

Some are obvious, but that makes it no easier to come up with personal solutions. The cost of living crisis is incredibly serous. It is going to take many more people to the verge of poverty. For those already living in poverty it will simply be disastrous. The increase in costs are completely unmanageable. 

It is going to change society. The only question to answer is how will that change manifest itself? I think the first thing to realise is that it is going to be severe and long lasting. We face the prospect of an inflationary recession, the worst type of recession imaginable, everything will be adversely affected. Wages, where they are any, will have less purchasing power, borrowing costs will rise as banks raise interest rates. This in turn will raise mortgages for those not on a fixed rate. With Brexit already responsible for big food cost increases, inflation will add to the burden. For those like pensioners and others living on fixed incomes they face the prospect of keeping up with the increases while, at the same time, those fortunate to have savings, will witness their true value dwindle in front of their eyes.

In the workplace I anticipate a big rise in industrial disruption as workers demand big wage rises to match inflation. Companies will in many cases be facing big problems as well as inflation builds in their supply system, reducing margins and their ability to pay out the bigger wages being demanded. Jobs will be lost in this process, how many is still to be experienced but my view is it could be big numbers.

Many people live on the edge, the numbers who appear comfortable at the moment that would be in desperate straits in a matter of weeks if no wage or salary was being received is a very substantial number.

We are in an incredibly weak position. We manufacture very little. Because we are in the Union we are a major food importer. Despite being the most energy rich country in Europe,  we get charged more to load it into the grid than any other energy producers in Europe, most of whom are paid, rather than charged, to do so.

This is historic political failure, for decades our oil and gas resources enriched our neighbour rather than ourselves. That is how you end up with more oil and gas jobs in England rather than Scotland. Our renewables are going the same way, the new cable based in Blyth will export Scottish renewable energy, not anywhere in Scotland. We will have no control as England exports whatever energy they don’t just use themselves.

Ah but we have whisky! Do we? Have a look at that industry. How much of it is owned in Scotland? Very little! Where are the sales offices and the higher value jobs? In the main in England, London in particular benefits. Have you heard of transfer pricing? That is a mechanism used by corporations to move profit about. In the main with whisky this involves paying the actual distillery pennies from the whisky production, then gradually adding “ value” the further the whisky gets away from the distillery. The high value sales are of course controlled by the sales offices, very few of which are located in Scotland.

We had the opportunity in 2014. For the first time in my lifetime Scots woke up. They voted for Independence, however the lack of a proper franchise, a franchise that would have operated in virtually every other country in Europe, sufficient non Scots who the Edinburgh University study evidenced voted overwhelmingly no, particularly those originating in the rest of the UK, and they were sufficient, when added to the minority of Scots who voted no, to deny us freedom.

Many of the Scots who voted No thought they were preserving the UK place in the Single Market of the EU, or preserving the HMRC and military shipbuilding Jobs, or the benefits contained in the last minute Vow which promised the moon, while busily stealing the spaceship.

We fell for the London easy money story from Thatcher, or at least England did,, allowing industry and manufacturing to be destroyed all in the hope that a economy based round the financial trading houses in London would keep us afloat. It didn’t.

For a country like Scotland it was madness. Scotland with its history of both heavy and light engineering industries suddenly had no steel production. Prices soared because pricing is based on the costs of transporting the steel from the nearest main plant. Suddenly there wasn’t one in Scotland anymore.

Why did this happen? I will finish with this example because I was all over the newspapers and TV at the time forecasting it would be the disaster it has proved to be.

Steel production came early in the drive to privatise anything that moved. It was therefore hugely important it was oversubscribed. To achieve this British Steel were instructed to reduce production capacity. The idea, which came from financial management, was to “ ensure” British Steel could “sell everything” they made in the UK and return steady profits.

Business doesn’t work like that. If you open up gaps in your market you are inviting in foreign competition. When they enter the market they will not limit their sales to just the areas and products you have chosen to no longer manufacture. They sell across the entire sector and those sales allow them to develop a sales and delivery distribution service at a fraction of the huge cost it would have if you had not given them such an easy road. This is what happens when accountants and financial managers think they know how to run a business. Thatcher let this type of “management” to run wild in the 1980’s.

It was a huge mistake then. We are still paying the cost of the folly that allowed the country with the largest steel requirement in Europe at the time to end up with no steel industry.

This example relates to steel but it could be applied to many others. Yet here we are in 2022 facing a huge crisis and we still have a Scottish Government looking the wrong way, pursuing ridiculous policy development that denies science, leaves most of our communities looking on in bemusement. Where the only boom industry being food banks…and we are going to need a lot more of them! 

What a mess we have allowed to develop in our food rich, energy rich, country.

Give me a shout when you all decide to do something about it.

I am, as always

Yours for Scotland.

BEAT THE CENSORS

Sadly some sites had given up on being pro Indy sites and have decided to become merely pro SNP sites where any criticism of the Party Leader or opposition to the latest policy extremes, results in censorship being applied. This, in the rather over optimistic belief that this will suppress public discussion on such topics. My regular readers have expertly worked out that by regularly sharing articles on this site defeats that censorship and makes it all rather pointless. I really do appreciate such support and free speech in Scotland is remaining unaffected by their juvenile censorship. Indeed it is has become a symptom of weakness and guilt. Quite encouraging really.

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40 thoughts on “WHAT NEXT?

  1. We still get this “…recovery for indy…” crap, when anyone with an ounce of brains, can clearly see that “recovery”, is simply impossible without independence.
    The SNP needs a genuine leader.
    NOW !

    Liked by 20 people

  2. I think, Iain, that a massive social upheaval is on its way. Not the one manufactured by middle-class brats with Gucci handbags and shoes (and I’m not just talking about the females) screaming abuse at women who are fighting for their rights against porn sick men who will never admit what their real problems are, but who lie about their fetishes and about the age (two or three – absolutely refuted by most child workers) that they started, looking backwards from a middle-aged perspective and condemning many of our young people and children – particular female ones – to ‘living deaths’ with serious and life-long medical issues that they cannot possibly comprehend now and which will cost the NHS billions to support. It will buckle under the strain, of course, as intended by those evil people who bankroll this pernicious movement.

    Working people on low wages will not manage: there is simply no way they can; and familial generations will be forced into supporting each other as they had to do in the distant past. This is the way that Tories like things: keeping the poor and ‘just managing’ on their toes, their lives blighted by lack of aspiration and money. It is also the Tory way to believe that it will never happen to them personally. These idiots really need to read a little history to understand how circumstances change from era to era, and often on a personal level. Some go up, many go down. Until this recession hits them in the pocket where their hearts reside, they will do nothing to alleviate it. The other, much bigger problem is that many global businesses are multi-businesses and they often have a turnover bigger than many countries’ GDP, so they call the tune. Predatory, unfettered capitalism is a monster. Regulated capitalism can be relatively benign when coupled to social democracy. We have lost the plot. Sure, the pandemic has brought most countries to their knees, but Brexit will prove to be the far greater mistake on several levels, not just the economic. The harsh reality is that Scotland will very probably not be able to rejoin the EU immediately and given that the EU has its own problems.

    No, I think that huge social unrest will result and it will take many surprising and not-so-surprising guises. One off-shoot, if we are not very careful, will be totalitarianism/fascism and we can already see the stirrings: young people are natural-born totalitarians, if Mao’s Red Guard, Pol Pot’s young guards, the Hitler Youth and Komsomol youth are anything by which to judge, and they require hard life experience to understand that their black-and-white view of the world, along with their pretty genuine desire to ‘do good’ will always be perverted and subverted by those who have a very different agenda. What scares me more are all the so-called adults who simper along with most of this utter s***e out of virtue signalling sanctimony and the fear of offending and being cancelled. Not just the insane ‘trans’ issue either, with all the tripe that passes for critical thinking these days. One cliche is bang on: you never can make an omelette without breaking eggs – and heads. That will now be the next phase.

    Liked by 18 people

    1. The demise of Capitalism has been predicted ever since Marx’s accurate critique. Capitalism was saved by Democratic Socialism (union recognition, universal suffrage, minimum wage, universal healthcare, … ) but as Marx predicted, greed would always prevail and someone would find a way to circumvent the “safety switch”. And they did, Globalisation set the race to the bottom back on course.
      For the first time in my life, predictions of the end of Capitalism may begin to hold true. The signs are there. F#*@ing over the workers was always in play, what’s new is blatant abuse of shareholders. That was never a part of “healthy” Capitalism. Seven figure recompense for the CEOs and CFOs of “loss” making companies, that’s just taking the piss.
      So many of these vaunted new technology companies (Spotify and Über to name but two) are obvious Ponzi schemes, protected by a bought off political class.
      Yes, identity politics has been weaponised to divide the masses, but curious linkage is being formed between the true, economic Left (not to be confused with the pseudo identitarian Left) and the libertarian Right.
      Our middle class, humanities graduate, managerial class are sitting on a social Krakatoa. Judging by their imperious projections, their blissfully unaware. Their carefully constructed social bubble isolates them from the rage in the streets.

      Liked by 10 people

      1. I don’t see the end of capitalism but it will certainly be in danger if it becomes responsible for a loss of social responsibility and the effective murder of fair justice in this country. We need folk with experience of industry and business not social theory and restructuring running the country because they are making a huge mess of it.

        Liked by 12 people

    2. The establishment used to rely on bread and circuses to control the prole.
      Now that bread will be unaffordable and circuses much the same what method will they fall back on when the demos start?

      Liked by 7 people

  3. We need to look at Scotland in the modern world, not indulge in irelevant fancies about the Claim of Right and other “wicked” historical grievances. We need to look at what’s gone wrong in the last 70 or so years, how and why Scotland has suffered during that period, and how the only way to resolve the situation is for us to obtain our independence. A clear and logical prospectus has to be set out in simple language showing just how we can realistically do that. Basically, a majority of the people have to be convinced that they and their families would be better off in an independent Scotland – very few will care a jot about the Claim of Right, etc.which will if anything be an unhelpful distraction. I think that there will be minimal support in the country for any notion of Scotland unilaterally leaving the UK without at least some pragmatic agreement with thr RofUK.

    In view of all that has happened not only to Scotland but to the UK during the last few years one wouldn’t have thought that the above should be too difficult a task, and it would certainly be made considerably easier if we had new people at the top of the SNP, people who really believe in independence and who have some passion about it, as well as an intellectual appreciation of the advantages. I don’t think Alba is going to get us anywhere, at least certainly not for a couple of decades if that, so the change has to come from within the SNP. Will Sturgeon’s failure to offer a referendum in 2023 bring that about? I’d hope so – I think quite a lot of previously staunch SNP members are beginning to have worries on that score. What I will say is that if Sturgeon does manage to bring about a referendum in 2023, we must all get behind it and support it to the hilt. A divided movement is not going to win.

    Liked by 5 people

    1. I don’t see how we can win a referendum in 2023.
      The preparation work has not been done. The answers on currency and the border are not even in draft form – although GRA guidance is almost certainly done and probably in the nuSNP constitution.
      Sturgeon has demonstrated gross incompetence and secrecy in government. Scandals are now breaking. It is not a good look and few people would want this administration turning their incompetence on to negotiating independence.

      It is really up to the movers and shakers in the SNP: either they are happy to be a trans activist party, led by someone who will exit to the UN with the blessing of the UK PM and leave them with a failed referendum and the contempt of their nation – or they will prioritise competence, good governance and start to demand the UKG provides clarity on the key issues of currency and the border. Vacillation by the UKG will not be a good look for the union.

      Sturgeon is planning for failure – I believe it is the last act required of her by the UKG before they permit her job with the UN to go ahead.

      Liked by 19 people

      1. I too have doubts about our ability to win a referendum in 2023, basically for the same reasons that you do. I rather hope that there won’t be one, both becase I don’t think we’ll win it if there is and also because the failure to offer a referendum during the (yet another) promised time scale may be at long last be a final straw for the SNP membership and I still see a shaken-up SNP as the most likely vehicle to take us to independence.

        However, if there is a referendum, then we must all get behind the Yes campaign and do all we can to achieve a victory. If we lose such a referendum, there won’t be another opportunity for a long time (see Quebec) As far as I’m concerned, Independence transcends all else; trans issues, scandals, incompetence will all be forgotten until the result is known.

        Liked by 6 people

      2. Davey – we will have to fight for YES, of course – but the only way YES can win is by regrouping after clearing out this mess. If the SNP don’t take action on this failing leadership we will be gallant losers. I think this is deliberate on Sturgeons part – she wants the UN job and that requires the permission of the PM. No-one can serve two masters … The SNP need their members to call them out on this though I honestly don’t know how members can do this now their voices have been so effectively silenced.

        Liked by 14 people

  4. To be fair, “offshoring” steel production was a European wide mania. What was the EEC at the time (shortly to become the EU) actively encouraged all its members to shut down steel capacity as it dismantled tariffs for Far Eastern imports. Thatcher wasn’t alone. Capitalism’s biggest trick was to use its command of msm to convince enough folk that (to employ Thatcher’s words) traditional, heavy industries were outdated, superfluous, unnecessary and “sunset”.
    This was of course nonsense. Ravenscraig was an EEC recognised centre of excellence. Substantial quantities of EEC funding was directed to Ravenscraig to promote research and development.
    I was there to the bitter end. Our substantially enhanced redundancy and resettlement packages didn’y come out of British Steel shareholders pockets, it was EEC money. Utter lunacy.

    Liked by 12 people

  5. Unfortunately any progress requires that the public wake up!. I see no sign of that. Labour continues to tell their flock that the sunny uplands for all will be delivered via London. The Tories and LibDems are tied to the Union mantra of Empire rebuild. Now we come to the cult followers of the Greens and the NUSNP who demand a Stonewall TransCult Scotland imposed. One dictating Party we will be in NATO and the other saying we won’t and the views of the voters ignored by both again.

    I want Independence for the People of Scotland to shape Scotland.

    At the moment the fan clubs of every political Party appear to want someone else to decide the future of Scotland and are happy for their leaders do it.

    It appears to be a choice between various colours of Tory London or TransCult Holyrood….time to emigrate!

    Liked by 8 people

  6. ” Give me a shout when you all decide to do something about it.”

    Shouts!

    Context first: Think of 2 days – only 24 hours apart – the day before independence is gained and the day after.

    Now think of the questions that poses – it is a very very long list – I am just going to choose one because Iain Lawson is in a prime position to do something about it. I’ll keep this as short s I can.

    About two years ago I submitted a Petition to the Scottish Parliament, one aspect related to a severe deficiency in the Referendums (Scotland ) Act – and allied with that the question of cyber security. It was closed by the Committee – and then shortly after SEPA got hacked.

    The day before independence (and in every day preceeding that) Scotland is reliant on GCHQ – the day after?

    Here is a link to Estonia – Iain.

    https://e-estonia.com/estonia-the-3rd-most-secure-country/

    Ever thought of asking for their help, Iain, in preparing an independent Scotland for the day after? Guidelines – what and how they gained that position.

    Reaching out to other countries is part of the “Declaration of a Sovereign Scot” initiative.

    My “Long letter” in The National explains:

    https://www.thenational.scot/politics/20139775.sovereign-scots-must-think-outside-box-like-others-1960/

    The TOU put Scotland in a box – we need to think outside of that box.

    Stops shouting – begins listening for Iain.

    Liked by 8 people

    1. This may surprise you but the Scottish Parliament and the Estonian Government do discuss these matters. The Estonian situation is so far ahead in terms of integrating digital systems into Government that many Governments large and small are following their steps, some faster than others. I am meeting the new Estonian Ambassador next month when he visits Scotland so I will try and raise this with him.

      Liked by 13 people

      1. Iain … past discussion twixt you and me – you know Governments are sensitive over what they may be seen (stress seen) to be doing to assist others – and in a Scottish independence situation that is understanable.

        With that as a given ,,, here is what I would love you to raise at that meeting: We have young tech savvy individuals in Scotland – what options could be created to allow them to head on secondment to learn first hand how Estonia have established and now run their systems so that we have some prepartion done and individuals in place with the hands on knowledge required.for an independent Scotland. (Erasmus plus so to speak).

        Liked by 6 people

  7. Every elected SNP councillor, MSP, MP and their party officials need to be called out for the political cowards and quislings that they are, for not standing up for Scotland and for allowing Sturgeon and her clique to stay in power. The SNP needs to be removed from power and paid positions everywhere. Sick and fed up of hearing every excuse under the sun for the so called good members still within the party…absolute pish…They are part of the problem for staying put and doing nothing. Scotland needs patriots not f*****g parrots as the NUSNP have become.

    Liked by 12 people

  8. I have my finger crossed to the idea that the Englsih nationalist have it in their heads that Nortern Ireland and Scotland are to expense to keep, so will our neighbour look to be Independent from the rest of the UK, lets hope so. I would rather be Independent by England leaving than Sturgeon having the privilege and glory. Good luck to Frankfurt for tonights match.

    Liked by 4 people

  9. We already know that a majority of Scotland’s MPs may withdraw Scotland from the UK union, and Scots have now returned three such majorities, which means that a referendum is unnecessary. This also means that the SNP’s unwillingness to end the union after being given three successive elected majorities of nationalist MP’s tells us clearly that they have no intention to deliver independence. If the SNP really intended to make Scotland independent they would have done it long before now.

    Scotland’s national majorities of elected SNP MP’s bizarrely claim not to be nationalists and their inaction proves their case – they are not nationalists – for nationalists would already have withdrawn Scotland from the union. They claim to be ‘internationalist’ however in this they ignore the global reality that “it is at the heart of national consciousness that international consciousness lives and grows” (Frantz Fanon). In other words, in order to be ‘international’ and for your nation and people to play their part on the international plane you must first be ‘national’.

    If a referendum is ‘permitted’ by our colonial masters in 2023/24 it will only be because Scotland’s demographics have shifted even more in favour of ‘No’, which is no doubt why the census outcome has been delayed again. And any national referendum based again on an irregular local government voting franchise would probably be Scotland’s ‘Quebec2’ moment, and that may well be the end of the road for independence. The fact that the SNP are totally dependent on another dubious referendum option only goes to demonstrate that they have no interest in delivering independence, as well as having no conception of what a ‘nationalist’ is, or is supposed to do.

    Liked by 18 people

    1. “We already know that a majority of Scotland’s MPs may withdraw Scotland from the UK union”

      We know no such thing. The former Parliament of Scotland was merged into the UK Parliament, and it would take a majority vote of that body to repeal the Acts of Union.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. Poor old sparks is upset at all talk of independence so just like his unionist brethren has to stamp his feet and demand that we listen to HIS MISINFORMATION

        Liked by 6 people

      2. “We know no such thing”

        Yes, we do. This was policy in the SNP until early 2000’s and accepted by England parties.

        The fabricated need for a referendum is a recent thing and nothing more than an attempt to bypass the huge risk for England’s expectations as the continuator state of the UK of Great Britain that is if Scotland was to repeal the treaty of union.

        If in 8 May 2015 the political fraud in control of the SNP had done what she was expected to do and kept the SNP MPs from swearing allegiance and taking the seats to demand the repeal of the treaty of union, either another election would have had to be called, with the same predictable result, or the treaty of union would have been repealed. Do you seriously believe Sinn Fein would keep its MPs out of parliament if they did not know it was the way to go?

        All what we are seeing is an attempt to force Scotland through a path where it undermines its status as an equal partner to the status of a region attempting to secede. In that way, in the very long distant future, when it has nothing of value that can be stolen, Scotland walks out with nothing while England has pocketed the lot.

        All this nonsense Sturgeon is parroting now about Scotland having to apply for NATO points to that too. At this point, she appears to be already assuming the current NATO seat of the UK is going to go to England. Why? The independence negotiations have not even started yet, so at this point, Scotland has as much right to the UK NATO seat as England does because both are equal partners. It is a common asset and who takes needs to be negotiated. The same applies to the UN seat. Yet, the political fraud is already handing the seat to England, just like she did when she surrendered our EU citizenship to England’s MPs, our democracy, our constitutional rights, our assets and our dignity.

        Liked by 12 people

      3. as was the defunct, not pro-rogued (like Scotland) English Parliament.

        as they are talking about leaving the Union now, they will be assured of our support in that regard – hence your matter is solved.

        Like

    2. “We already know that a majority of Scotland’s MPs may withdraw Scotland from the UK union,”

      No we don’t. All we know is that some few people think that that might be the case. Most people, I suspect, don’t.

      Liked by 1 person

  10. In times of crisis government has to be bold and control public funding while encouraging enterprise.

    Step forth AGFRR! It’s something the Scottish Government could introduce now. Instead of mitigation we can have transformation and rUK behind.

    Sent from my iPhone

    Liked by 8 people

      1. It is a very good idea. Graeme has done a lot of work on this. It is a form of Annual Ground Rent which could greatly improve Scotland replacing a lot of very unfair taxes and ending a lot of tax evasion.

        Liked by 7 people

  11. Well here’s my shout, for what it is worth.

    As to what can I/we do? My step mother told me in 2013, very clearly, every Indy supporter is an ambassador for YES, in times of hardship I think that will become even more important. I appreciate that is not a great rallying cry to gatherer round the banner, but for the moment (given the current lull) it is what I have in the cupboard. But, if I may give an example, Alex Salmond has repeatedly put aside his justified grievance with regards the criminal way he has been treated, and been the adult in the room. A statesman. On a smaller scale, and on a local level, he’s not the only one.

    And decency, one bit at a time…. the evils that travail the world at the moment, would like nothing more than to have us all go at each others throats.

    Meantime, I’m going to keep, keeping on, for as long as I’m able, and for now that means (in terms of having a party I can vote for) Alba. It won’t be over till its over and much can change in an instant.

    Liked by 7 people

  12. We need to get out of this rotten Union now. This blog is instructive, it tells us where the ship has been, and where it is headed with the present crew in place. Well, damn them, I don’t want this Westminster pilot on the bridge, thank you very much. I want to invite every non-native Scot in Scotland to vote for Inde this time because Scotland is worth it, because we love this place and its people, its children and its future. Forget the old ties, and love Scotland enough to help it rise like a Phoenix from the present ashes of incompetence and penury forced on us from the deep state in England, whose disfavour towards Scotland is entrenched and unremitting. “We can still rise now, and be the nation again”. Come on guys, let’s do the job.

    Liked by 1 person

  13. Sadly, our political establishment have proved that they are servants of the corporate establishment, rather than servants of the people. They will go to great lengths to preserve their standard of living. Step out of line and they are buried by corporate owned media. Ask Jeremy Corbyn.

    Liked by 2 people

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