IT IS UNIONISTS WHO WILL MATTER MOST.

Jim SILLARS along with his editor Calum Miller have restarted the Yes Think website. This is the first essay.

It is the Unionists who will matter most

A successful independence campaign lies not in convincing ourselves, but  in exposing to unionists that the “strong” UK they believe in is  a myth

By Jim Sillars

The independence movement is alive, but not kicking. It is split – SNP/Alba, and splintered, with, at the latest count, ten organisations doing their own thing: mostly self-confirming reasons why they support independence. There is no main coherent message, and there has been no unified national campaign since 2014.   There does not seem to be an understanding that the people who matter most are not ourselves, but the unionists without whose conversion we cannot win. 

There is a case to be presented to our fellow unionist citizens, a compelling case. The question is whether the SNP leadership and membership is able to make the case alone, or whether it can scramble out of its sectarian trench and co-operate with others to do so.  

The current SNP leadership, and membership, continues to believe it has a proprietorial right to the movement. It and it alone must lead. But it is clueless.  It produces papers purporting to describe an independent Scotland that are quickly forgotten. There is no energy, no dynamic.  Its main message is to bleat about the wickedness of Westminster’s refusal to grant another referendum.  The latest Humza cry to make Scotland a Tory free zone is emblematic of a party thrashing around in a political vacuum of its own making. No one in Downing Street, or its likely next occupant, is afraid of a Humza Yousaf led SNP.   I read the English papers, where the SNP is now regarded with contempt, and a sure fire belief that the day of independence being important is over.  

Of course, those English commentators make the mistake of seeing the SNP and independence as one and the same. In a recent column in the Daily Telegraph Alan Cochrane, noting the mess the SNP government is in, wondered how a poll could still show 47 per cent favouring independence.  He didn’t think this was real, just “bravado” on the part of some Scots. But it is real, and for a reason which I have picked up talking to people: they are realising that the economic and political shambles that is now the UK, where nothing works,  is not a passing phase  that can be corrected by replacing Sunak with Starmer, but something deeper and permanent.

We are at a seminal moment: if we make it so

It is now plain: the UK is a “poor country pretending to be rich” as one headline in the Daily Telegraph declared. This is the open goal. We have to persuade unionists see the UK for what it has now become, and help them understand that if Scotland is to avoid a  future of continued decline and getting poorer, then they along with the rest of us  need to  escape by becoming  independent.  

The UK presented to Scotland in  2014, and believed as true by unionists,  is profoundly different than the one we see in 2024.  And it is this change that presents the great opportunity for us in the movement to not to swear at, not to insult, but to talk calmly and rationally to our fellow unionist citizens, and explain that the UK they believed in was a myth, now exposed as such.   

Another fact we have to drive home is that Scotland cannot reverse the UK’s decline. Five million people cannot save sixty million people.  

Explaining that decline and why Scotland should escape from it is the campaign that should now be our priority. There is an abundance of evidence to prove it. 

Let me put on record that I do not find any pleasure in identifying the decline, nor in the cruel economic and social consequences it will bring upon a very large number of people in England.  Geography binds us together on this island, and England will always be a factor in how Scotland handles its independence and its relations with others.  I don’t see a happy future for England’s people, because its elite’s imperial hangover prevents it from seeing what is really happening, until it will be too late to reverse course. 

In 2014 the unionist case was that small Scotland had to shelter under the umbrella of an economically strong, powerful UK, politically highly influential in the world community. The boast was that the UK was a Tier 1 economy with a Tier 1 military. Coming out from under that umbrella was, the majority of Scotland’s voters believed, not sensible. No one can see that as true now. 

UK Decline: all the signs are there

My files have a number of articles by heavy weight  economic and political commentators  highlighting the decline. Here are a few of the most recent. “Britain is fast becoming a failed state,” Camila Tominey Daily Telegraph 2^nd. March 2024. “Labour can’t fix broken Britain,” Neil Mackay The Herald 22^nd February 2024. And the doyen of them all Andrew Neil “There is a growing sense that we are a country in decline and our political masters don’t know what to do about it. I fear what might be to come.” Daily Mail 2^nd March 2024. 

There have been three periods of UK decline. The first started around 1850 when both Germany and the United States began to create superior economies. That caused problems in the early  20th century but was not fatal, as the British state’s power rested upon an empire.  The second was after 1945 when the expense of the war led to serious debt and reliance on onerous US  loans. That period covered most of my life, and was marked by repeated economic crises. The senior ranks of the civil service were open about what they saw as their primary duty: managing the decline, as the UK slid down the economic league table from 2nd. To 4^th. then 5^th. and now 6^th. While the  Mandarins faced reality,  the politicians promised that it wasn’t true. Margaret Thatcher believed she had stopped and reversed the decline, but what she really had was decline hidden by the wealth pouring out of the North Sea. Once she had gone, the reality re-emerged. 

The third decline, which we are now experiencing is no longer a manageable one, because the UK  received two severe major shocks which a vulnerable economy  was ill equipped to deal with, and recover from. First there was the 2008 international financial crisis, met by Quantitative Easing, printing vast amounts of money which inflated the assets of the already rich minority,  while it  did nothing for growth and productivity, with poverty and wage stagnation the fate of the majority.  The second was the mishandling of the pandemic, when the decision for prolonged lock downs trashed the economy. 

Mishandling the pandemic is not hindsight on my part.  The first lock down was supposed to be a short one while the scientists got a grip on the nature of the virus. Right at the start the Chinese gave two pieces of information: the gnome of the virus for the scientists, and for the politicians that the over 70s were the main age group in danger, with younger people resistant to fatal consequences. I was among a minority, having listened to and read eminent epidemiologists, who opposed further lockdowns. Given that the threat to the over 70s was a known, it is astonishing that the care homes, where the over 70s gather, was not a priority.  But that is a matter for another day. 

The economy was trashed and has not recovered. The debt consequence, the level of taxes, the  failure to get growth, continued low productivity, falling living standards, the widespread need for food banks, and the damage to the education of children, places the UK in that category of a poor country pretending to be rich.  The UK does not earn its living, and survives on a giant international credit card (called selling government debt bonds) the interest on which becomes the Treasury’s first payment before the NHS, and all other departmental expenditure. We have even witnessed employment of a banana republic trick, of the Bank of England, a government body, buying its own government debt. 

UK budget deficit – the difference between what is taken in tax and what is spent – was £90bn in  2008-9.  In 2022-23 it was £132bn, with total debt now heading towards £3 trillion. The interest payments from last year’s budget was £94bn, more than was spent on education (£81.4bn) and defence (£32.4bn). 

Instead of being autonomous, in full powerful control of key government decisions, the Prime Minister and his Chancellor are monitored, and if necessary controlled, and can be brought down, by those who lend them money.  That was the hard lesson dished out to Liz Truss.  That is not the fate of a real powerful state, but of a decaying and declining one.  

Another more human sign of decline is the inability even of many who work to feed themselves and their families.  The rise in the number of Trussell Trust’s food banks are an unmistakeable sign of economic and social decline. Between 2005 and 2008,  it had very few food banks, and they were mainly for people who found themselves on the streets, or the few in dire straits.  Now the Trussell Trust operates 1,400 while independents have created another 1,172.  Food banks are now an  essential part of the social security system. They give the lie to the UK being rich and powerful. 

Institutional Decay and Decline

All states rest upon their institutions. The British state’s principal one’s are: monarchy, parliament, civil  service, military, police, independent judges,  Church of England (it is has the principal religious role compared to other denominations),  local government, universities, justiciary. . Allied to strong indigenous economic structures, these are what gave it the inherent strength to exercise power in years gone by.   Each now is in a state of decay.

Monarchy. Mystic, reverence and religious allegiance are three factors that have been essential in cementing monarchy in the British constitution. The monarch and close family need to be perceived as on a unique level of humanity to sustain a system that is fundamentally absurd in a democratic age. But once let the light in, the mystic is gone. The old Queen kept the shades down for many years, but in the end the magic melted, and we can all see that what we have, in reality, is a soap opera.  Cries of “not my king,” would once have been unthinkable.  Monarchy will linger on, but its influence and relevance will continue to decline. 

Parliament.  It is no longer peopled by politicians of high quality. The respect it once commanded is gone. That a Speaker should have folded to opposition pressure, and fear of outside influences, as happened recently, speaks volumes for its diminished reputation. We may look with amazement at the Biden v Trump choice in the USA, but on our own patch the most likely outcome of the Sunak v Starmer contest this year will be a very low turnout, with a growing number of people having lost faith in the system. 

Civil Service. Once, correctly, described as the Rolls Royce of administrations,  admired worldwide for its political neutrality and effectiveness, now deliberately blocs ministerial policy, leaks confidential documents, and is a machine  which finds it hard to make anything work. The words “unfit for purpose” apply to a number of its main departments. 

Military. The army is now small and getting smaller. In the first Gulf war, to liberate Kuwait, it could put a division into the battle. Today it can only offer its allies a Brigade. It does not have the ability to defend this island. The Royal Navy has two aircraft carriers which have fewer aircraft available than some of the National Guards of some US states. They cannot form two carrier battle groups because there are not enough anti-aircraft, anti-drone,  and anti-submarine destroyers and frigates to form their defensive protection.  It is now questionable whether the Trident missile system would work if required.  The RAF, like the army on the ground, it is not capable of defending the skies above us.  Pilots are being trained abroad in Italy and USA because half the training fleet is out of action. The UK today is incapable of mounting the kind of operation that defeated the Argentinians in the Falklands. 

Police. The Metropolitan Police, the Scotland Yard that once elicited respect and admiration, and was the inspiration of so many detective novels and films about its expertise and reliability, is now more noted for its endemic failures, its officers’ misbehaviour, and worse, and failure to apply the law. Police are no better outside of London. Confidence in them has collapsed.   

Church of England. This has been one of the bastions of the UK constitution. It has official status, with representation in the House of Lords as of right.  It is now hollowed out. Its churches empty. Its pronouncements and divisions reflecting its now salient weakness: it is in a theological muddle. 

Local Government.  This was once the most effective instrument in the delivery of public services to the population. Parliament might legislate, but it was the local authorities who made that legislation work, and so was recognised one of the major state institutions.  Today it is weak and, in some major ones, broken, bankrupt and slashing essential services; and without hope of restoring its former position. 

Universities. These were at the height of British dominance great independent institutions of learning, from which emerged a high quality of political leadership.  Their doors were not open to the vast majority of the people, but those they did teach they did teach well, and their independence was based upon the wealth generated by a successful indigenous economy.  Since the 1990s there are more of them, but they are not all of the same academic standing. But what marks them out from the past, and this includes those of high academic status, is their reliance on government finance for the cohort who are British, and ever more growing numbers who are foreign without whose fees they would be in serious financial trouble.  Were India and China to decide their students should go elsewhere, the weakness of this institutional pillar would be laid bare. 

Independent Judges and the justice system. There have been over the years convictions of innocent people on the most serious  crimes and, as we have seen recently hundreds of law abiding sub-post office holders ruined.  That has not, however, been the fault of the judges, but of the criminal justice system. While the justice system continues to fail, with people waiting years for trials and justice, that the judges remain independent is the one small gleam of light in the UK darkness. 

Indigenous economic strength?  The economic output of manufacturing, 27 per cent in 1970,  fell   to 17 per cent in 1990, and reached only 10 per cent in 2023. Major components of the economy are foreign owned: water companies, energy companies, airports, transport, and it is the French who are building the new nuclear power station at Hinckley C.  Trade, the difference between what is exported and imported, have been in deficit every year since 1998. The economy runs on consumers buying, but with too many in low wages and relying on credit cards, personal debt is 126 per cent of household income.  

Influence? The imperial mind set of “What we say as the UK matters in the world ”still  exists in Whitehall where  it clings on to the permanent seat on the UN Security Council, while the international community sees it as a small off-shore island of Europe, clinging to the coattails of America, whose views carry no independent weight in the councils of rising powers like China, India, Indonesia, Brazil and the African state organisations. 

When stripped of the veils unionist politicians cast over the UK, what is there to be seen is post-imperial failure: a state skint, broken and always on the brink, and often into, economic crisis. 

The immediate task for the independence movement:  reveal UK irreversible decline

The independence movement, as represented by the SNP,  has spent much political capital on how an independent Scotland would work economically and what kind of social system would be built upon it.  A problem we face with that in recent years has been the poor performance of the SNP in devolved government. It is difficult for unionists, seeking reasons for holding on to their beliefs, to be convinced of our vision of a successful Scotland when what they see from the independence party in government, is levels of incompetence and mediocrity that are embarrassing. Until the SNP membership has the intellectual courage to admit that, and do something about it, unionist eyes will refuse to see the bright future forecast.  Perhaps the electorate will send the members that uncomfortable message later this year. 

In the meantime, the rest of the movement should concentrate on eroding the unionist mind’s belief in the UK as Scotland’s safeguard,  by setting out the reality of its irreversible damaging decline. That is stage one of winning them over. The facts are, and indisputable. 

MY COMMENTS

Great to hear about another pro Indy website, especially one being organised and run by Jim and Calum, two old time friends of mine. We can be sure it will provide interesting reading, challenging at times with very little verbal padding. Here is the link for future articles http://www.yesthink.scot

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